European Affairs

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Since assuming office as President of the Russian Federation in May, Dmitry Medvedev has been positioning himself as having a gentler style and rhetoric than his predecessor, Vladimir Putin.

World leaders, however, should not get too complacent with Medvedev’s appeal. Speaking about Medvedev’s softer approach, Masha Lipman, a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, recently noted the “... essence of Russian foreign policy remains the same.”

Last week, Medvedev himself stated, “Politicians are people, and they should have their own tone and their own style. But that does not change the basic tenets of policy.”

Many people continue to wonder if Putin is still running the country from his new position as Prime Minister. I’m sure Putin maintains quite a bit of influence, but Medvedev appears to support virtually all the former President’s policies.

Medvedev may seem more accessible, but has the ability to be confrontational, following directly in Putin’s footsteps. For example, he has sharply criticized the United States regarding recent turmoil in world financial markets, noting the troubles began with the collapse of the US housing market.

Medvedev may seem to be easier to deal with, but he will do whatever he thinks is right for his country. The face of Russia’s government may have changed, but its policies remain the same.

Reference

Wiseman, Paul. “Medvedev steps into spotlight.” USA Today. July 2, 2008.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

The European Union continues its effort to decrease carbon dioxide emissions throughout the continent. Nuclear energy is considered a source that already makes a substantial contribution to the EU policy of a continuous supply of low-carbon, cost-effective power. Currently supplying 30% of Europe's electricity, nuclear power contributes to stabilized energy prices due to its ratio of primary investment costs to fuel costs.

However, the European public has concerns about nuclear power, focusing on waste disposal, particularly high-level radioactive waste. Proposed solutions include the use of deep geologic depositories, but the first operational facilities are at least a decade away. Finland is currently building such a facility in Eurajoki, near the Olkiluoto nuclear plant, but it will not be ready for use until 2020. Germany is also planning to build a deep geologic disposal site at the Gorsleben salt dome in Lower Saxony, but it will not be operational until at least 2025.

Recent studies have shown Europe only needs a handful of long-term storage facilities for nuclear waste. While this is good news for individual countries, it raises another safety concern. How can this high-level radioactive waste be safely transported across borders? Can you imagine the dangers of a truck with highly contaminated waste products overturning on a highway? I assume that not only would special trucks have to be built for transportation purposes, but new roads as well. I don't believe most people would be happy driving down the highway with one of these trucks nearby.

Europe still has a long way to go before safely achieving long-term radioactive waste disposal. At least the EU and member states are continually moving forward in their pursuit of this goal.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Dutch Economics Minister Maria van der Hoeven believes the Netherlands will be unable to meet its future carbon dioxide emissions targets without nuclear power. Van der Hoeven recently said, "We are very gas dependent and we have to do something about it. In my opinion, it will be very difficult to achieve a clean energy household in 2050 without nuclear energy."

With only one operational nuclear power station, the majority of the country’s energy supplies comes from natural gas. The Netherlands cannot continue this trend as their domestic natural gas reserves are dwindling.

The Netherlands is not alone in their concerns to meet future greenhouse gas targets. Many European countries are also concerned about this issue. Harnessing wind is an alternative, but nuclear plants can easily produce more energy.

Worldwide complacency is the true cause of today's energy problems. Oil, coal and natural gas have been standard sources for a long time. Nuclear power has gained acceptance over the past 40-50 years, though it still needs to overcome fears caused by accidents such as Chernobyl and Three Mile Island.

It is too late to avoid rising energy prices, but now is the time to begin new research efforts for viable alternate energy sources.

Reference

Steen, Michael. "Dutch to weigh up benefits of nuclear power." Financial Times. May 19, 2008.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

According to the Labour Force Survey of Statistics Finland, between 2004 and April 2008, Finland's unemployment rate dropped from 8.8% to 6.2%, with 162,000 people unemployed. The country's rate of employment grew slowest in its southern and western regions, though decreases were also seen in the east and north. The Province of Southern Finland has the country's lowest unemployment rate at 4.7%, while the Province of Lapland is highest at 11.1%.

Not only are more people working in Finland, but they are also earning more money. Between February and April 2008, salaries have increased 9% over the same period last year. This growth is higher than the 6% gain during the corresponding period between 2006 and 2007. The largest wage increases were found in the construction sector (15.2%). Other areas with above average growth include private health care and social services (up to 12.6%), service sector (11.7%) and the financial sector (11.5%). Toward the low end of the scale, private training service salaries increased by approximately 5%.

Finland's employment statistics are gathered by two different methods. Statistics Finland obtains data through the use of the sample-based Labour Force Survey, collected each week of each month. The Ministry of Employment and the Economy use the register-based Employment Service Statistics, which report on employment as of the last weekday of each month. The sample-based approach allows for random variation of approximately +/- 0.5%.

The Finnish government officially uses the Employment Service Statistics because they are based on legislation and administrative regulations. The Labour Force Survey follows recommendations set forth by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), practices required by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities.

References

“Employment and unemployment in April 2008.” Statistics Finland. May 20, 2008.

“Employment Levels Grow; Salary Expenses Increase.” YLEISRADIO. June 12, 2008.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Iceland has cancelled its 2008 presidential election due to a lack of challengers for incumbent Olafur Ragnar Grimsson. Iceland's government has indicated no challengers filed the necessary paperwork to declare their candidacy by the May 24, 2008 deadline.

Despite what you may think, this is not unusual. Icelandic presidential elections are traditionally uncontested when the incumbent president wants another term in office. Grimsson, during his New Year's day speech, announced his intention to seek a fourth consecutive term in office.

Iceland's Presidency is a largely ceremonial office, as most governmental decisions are made by the Prime Minister. The Constitution does grant the President limited powers, but they are rarely used. Grimsson however, shocked the country in early June 2004 when he vetoed a media ownership law passed by the Althing (Parliament). It was unusual that Grimsson was challenged in the 2004 presidential election by two candidates: businessman and pacifism activist Aspor Magnusson and the unknown Baldur Agustsson. Despite a relatively small turnout of 63%, Grimsson won his third term in a landslide, securing 85.6% of the vote.

One cannot be surprised by this year's lack of challengers when you consider the 2004 election results. Apparently, to lose an election, Grimsson would have had to do something much worse than vetoing a law as he did in 2004. The only question remaining is whether Grimsson will seek an unprecendented fifth term in 2012.

References



"Iceland Cancels Presidential Election." IFES Election Guide - Country Profile: Iceland. May 26, 2008.

The President of Iceland Official Website.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Results from last weekend's election in Kyiv reveal the fragile nature of Ukrainian politics. The country’s democratic forces have become so disjointed that their stubbornness allowed incumbent mayor Leonid Chernovetsky to win re-election, even after charges of bribery and corruption were levied against him.

The ongoing battle between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko continued throughout the mayoral campaign. Tymoshenko selfishly supported her Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Turchynov, despite the low odds of victory. Yushchenko, though he did not admit it publicly, appeared to support Chernovetsky. Through their constant bickering, both leaders ignored two other democratic candidates, including the popular former boxer Vitaliy Klitschko.

Tymoshenko thought she held enough influence over voters to get her candidate into office. The Prime Minister was motivated by the desire to have her political bloc control Kyiv’s government, but her power play failed miserably when Turchynov lost the election by an almost 2:1 margin.

By refusing to come together to support a single candidate, the democratic forces ultimately weakened themselves. Had they come together behind a single candidate, the election results could have been remarkably different.

I was initially pleased when the democratic coalition formed after last September’s General Election, but now I’m not so sure. Since the days of the 2004 Orange Revolution, the pro-Russian Party of Regions (PoR) had been the common enemy. Infighting between the democratic forces is now so common that PoR has become nothing but an afterthought. If the democrats are not careful, the Party of Regions will sneak under the radar, regain power in the Verkhovna Rada and win the upcoming 2010 Presidential Election.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Results announced last week from the 2008 World Competitiveness Yearbook Survey placed Luxembourg as the fifth most competitive economic environment in the world. Only the United States, Singapore, Hong Kong and Switzerland placed ahead of the tiny Benelux country.

The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook is a highly regarded annual report that ranks countries economic competitiveness using 331 different criteria. Each country's score is calculated by combining the following factors: economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency and infrastructure. Most of the data is collected from sources such as the World Bank and United Nations, though some also comes form approximately 4,000 survey responses.

While fifth place sounds great for such a tiny country, Luxembourg slipped from last year’s number four ranking. Truly amazing is Luxembourg’s uncanny ability to remain in the world's top 10 for the past decade.

What is the secret to their success? The country's government has allowed its Board of Economic Development to be completely in charge of new development projects. Besides new project, Luxembourg employs a policy of industrial diversification. Another major driver of economic development is the country’s posturing as an attractive destination for intellectual property.

Luxembourg may be a small country, but the government is a forward-thinking body that is moving the country toward a bright and prosperous future.

References

"IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook: Luxembourg ranks 5th out of 55." Luxembourg Board of Economic Development. May 19, 2008.

"Luxembourg Ranked Fifth Most "Competitive" Economy in Annual IMD Survey." CA-Luxembourg-Consulate Press Release. May 19, 2008.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Malta’s government is considered to be a democratic republic, but don’t confuse the word democracy for freedom. According to a recent report by Freedom House, a non-governmental organization, freedom of the press has diminished in this tiny island nation over the past few years.

Though the country’s Constitution guarantees freedom of speech and of the press, the government is allowed to restrict these rights under a variety of circumstances. Apparently, Malta is one of three European Union member states not to have freedom of information legislation.

The government controls several domestic radio stations as well as the only national television broadcaster, TVM. Despite restricting access to independent news sources, Malta’s government does not block internet access.

Over the past year, Malta has seen a series of threats and attacks against journalists reporting on public demonstrations and debates. Police are currently investigating an arson attack against a journalist and editor who were covering issues of immigration, racism and intolerance towards immigrants. The Maltese Broadcasting Authority, in another example of restrictive policies, sued an independent television station for broadcasting material that could incite racial hatred.

Last week, Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi announced the approval of a draft freedom of information act, which is expected to be presented to the legislature at the formal start of the body’s new session.

I am surprised the European Union allows member governments to restrict freedom of the press and speech without penalty. I believe countries have the right to set their own policies, as long as they allow for basic freedoms. At least Malta finally seems ready to alter an antiquated policy.

Reference

Zahra, Charlot. “Malta enjoying fewer press freedoms.” Malta Today. May 11, 2008.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

On May 7, 2008, Dmitry Medvedev became the third President of the Russian Federation. Immediately after the inauguration, he nominated former President Vladimir Putin to become his Prime Minister.

So far, everything seems to be going as planned - that is, planned by Putin. For the past year, it appears that Putin has taken steps to insure he retains power after completing his second term as President. From changing laws to hand-picking a successor, Putin has made many people believe he has scripted the country’s path for the next four years until he can legally run for a third term as President.

Though Medvedev has been a close confidant for many years, Putin’s endorsement surprised many experts. Medvedev is more businessman than politician, and it is not clear if he has the skills to be President.

Medvedev was not part of the campaign picture until he received Putin’s endorsement. His popularity immediately skyrocketed, allowing Medvedev to win the election with almost 70% of the vote. This level of support has a strong basis in Putin’s popularity and the public’s desire to honor his wishes.

The only foreseeable problem between these men is Medvedev’s desire to honor the rule of law and establish civil and economic freedoms. These policies are opposite to the Soviet-style authoritarian tactics Putin occasionally employed.

Another question is whether Medvedev has the courage to dismiss Putin if he fails to deal with several existing problems. Putin had no problem firing Prime Ministers for their failures, but can Medvedev do this to his mentor? Medvedev appears to be loyal to a fault, and seems more likely to follow Putin’s script (if one really exists) than to challenge his friend and former boss.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Over the past several weeks, Russia has increased its peacekeeping forces in Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The additional troops were sent to the area after Georgia massed an additional 1,500 soldiers and police near the Abkhazia border. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow has to take action to protect Russian passport-holders in both regions. Georgia however, fears direct military aggression from Russia.

Georgia denies any plan of military intervention in either of the upstart regions and officials referred to Russia's tactics as "irresponsible."

Many experts believe Russia is acting out on its threat from earlier this year in which President Vladimir Putin stated if Kosovo was allowed to become an independent nation, it would set a precedent and Abkhazia and South Ossetia should then be provided with the same opportunity for independence.

Tensions between Russia and Georgia have recently increased, despite Moscow lifting economic sanctions against Georgia. Last week, Georgia claims a Russian MiG-29 shot down an unmanned Georgian spy plane. Following this “act of aggression,” Georgia has threatened to block Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization.

This situation is different than last year’s threat of military action by Moscow as a response to the US plan for an Eastern European missile defense shield. In that situation, Putin threatened direct force against its neighbors to protect its borders and interests.