Mark Resnicoff's Blog

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

To increase nuclear power generation following the closure of two reactors at the Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant, Bulgaria’s government has decided to complete construction of a new facility located at Belene. The first unit should be commissioned in 2013 and the second in 2014.

The project was initiated in the 1980’s, but democratic changes in the country halted construction in 1990. Surprisingly, the Belene facility is being built in an earthquake-prone area in Northern Bulgaria, close to the Romanian border.

The area’s last significant earthquake occurred in 1977, killing 120 people 14 kilometers from the project site. The epicenter of this 7.4 magnitude earthquake was in Romania. It occurred at a depth of 94 kilometers

Most surprising is the acceptance of this project by the European Commission. How can they possibly support the construction of this facility? Do they have no concern for public safety?

Even without the European Commission’s decision, I have no idea how the Belene project ever received positive environmental impact assessments. How can investigators approve a site that sits on an active seismic fault line?

Personally, I have enough concerns about nuclear power without having a plant built in an earthquake zone. Since the project is moving forward, my only question is whether they can build the reactors to withstand a major earthquake.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Atomic Energy of Canada, Ltd. (AECL) believes development of the nuclear power industry and transfer of CANDU technology to Romania has created a strong knowledge base producing good paying jobs and other positive economic spin-offs. Romania has also achieved a degree of energy self-sufficiency by producing fuel and heavy water from domestic resources.

Energy independence is a key element to honor a European Union policy to increase the security of each country’s energy supply. In this case, independence means the reduction of dependence on external suppliers as primary resources, especially those situated outside of Europe.

For countries contracting their services, AECL believes it needs to do more than just supply CANDU reactors. In the case of Romania’s Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant, the technology transfer has been important for the successful operation of the domestic Petisti nuclear fuel plant. To date, there have been no fuel failures attributable to fuel produced at the plant. Also, the plant has been able to increase production to meet the needs of both Cernavoda Units 1 and 2.

Cernavoda is also the site of an AECL-designed dry spent fuel storage facility. The first module was commissioned in 2003 and technology transfer has allowed additional modules to be built by Romanian companies.

This is a classic example of how a company can do the very best job it can without working under the premise that technology transfer will affect future sales and the bottom line. This is not only a lesson about the nuclear energy industry, but of general business practices as well.

References

“Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant, Romania.” Atomic Energy of Canada, Ltd. 2006-2008.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

In 1948, the Lithuanian Academy of Sciences established the Institute of Technical Sciences. In the early 1960’s, after a reorganization of specialty areas, the Institute of Energy and Electrotechnics was founded. In 1967, this organization was renamed the Institute of Physical-Technical Energy Problems, and again in 1992 to the Lithuanian Energy Institute.

The group’s objectives are to perform fundamental and applied research, prepare planning concepts and methods for the state’s policy energy sector, and to prepare first-class specialists for energy and related scientific research.

One of the Institute's scientific divisions is the Laboratory of Nuclear Engineering. This group, headed by Povilas Poskas, conducts research on construction of new nuclear power plants in Lithuania and other appropriate areas such as:

• Heat transfer
• Management of spent nuclear fuel
• Management of radioactive waste
• Factors related to decommissioning nuclear power plants
• Fire hazard analysis of nuclear power plants

This laboratory is responsible for a 2007 study that proposed generic concepts of a deep geologic repository for the storage of spent nuclear fuel in an area of clay and crystal rocks. The division has also been active in the analysis of radioactive waste management problems at the country’s Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant.

This laboratory is a wonderful example of how even small countries can conduct their own nuclear energy research, not relying on Russia or any other country for all their expertise. I would not expect Lithuania to build its own nuclear power plants in the future, but they do have the knowledge to deal with spent fuel and radioactive waste materials.

Reference

Lithuania Energy Institute - Laboratory of Nuclear Engineering Official Website.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Several years ago, Russia completed operational life-span extension work on seven first generation nuclear power reactors, allowing the units to run for an additional 15 years. Twelve more units are expected to receive similar extensions by 2013. The lifespan of second generation reactors is expected to be extended by 20 years each.

Russia decided to pursue this initiative due to the country’s nuclear expansion plan which is designed to help deal with increasing energy demands. To meet the aggressive goal of building up to 40 new reactor units by 2040, the country will need to raise approximately 40 billion euros of investment capital (one billion euros per unit).

Meanwhile, decommissioning existing reactors could reduce Russia’s current output by up to one third, creating massive domestic problems such as social unrest and economic hardships due to nuclear power plants being the core industry in several areas.

While Russia has taken these steps to secure its own interests, it is believed that the practice of extended the life-span of older reactors is inherently unsafe. Concerns include deterioration of reactor vessels, which are not easily replaced and the need for infrastructure to deal with additional volumes of radioactive wastes.

Critics also note that the entire extension process could cost as much as building a new reactor. They believe that extensions can only be economically feasible if the cost does not exceed one third the price of a new reactor.

Finally, it is believed that the current life-span extension program is illegal under Russian law. Legislation requires state environmental impact assessments for an extensions, but none of the affected reactors have undergone such a study.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Russia has become a world leader in the construction of nuclear power plants, both domestically and in other countries. In the course of developing these facilities, Russia has built reactors utilizing several different technologies.

Many different types of reactors are currently in use across the Russian Federation including:

• VVER - pressurized water
• LWGR and RBMK - light water cooled, graphite moderated
• BN - liquid metal cooled
• EGP - graphite channel with steam overheat

The pressurized water VVER model reactors appear to be the most popular, with several different variants used depending on the required power capacity for each unit.

Russia is not content to rely on its current nuclear technology for future projects. Through its membership in the ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) project, Russia is working on next-generation fusion reactors. Other participants in the ITER project are the European Union, India, Japan, China, South Korea and the United States.

Having learned from previous mistakes, the Russians truly believe that nuclear power is a safe source of energy for the future. Russia has moved away from the older and less safe RBMK and LWGR reactors to the common pressurized water reactors in use in many countries today. They have spent a huge amount of resources to stay on the cutting edge of nuclear technology that is used in domestic power plants and across Europe.

Due to the proliferation of new nuclear plants around the world, I hope the Russians can find technology to make this power source as safe as possible, thus avoiding another Chernobyl disaster.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Times have certainly changed since the 1986 disaster at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine. Not only is nuclear power gaining massive global acceptance, but Russia has begun construction of the world’s first floating nuclear power plant and plans to build at least six more.

Completion of the first floating nuclear plant, the Academician Lomonosov, is expected in 2010. Russia plans to use this vessel for domestic purposes. However, some of the six additional plants will be sold to foreign countries.

On the positive side, these facilities will not only have the ability to provide electricity to remote settlements, but also move to new locations to supply power to other regions based on immediate need.

Different safety issues continue to be the biggest concerns related to these structures. As with any nuclear facility, public apprehension is focused on potential environmental impacts. Unlike typical nuclear plants, the movement of floating facilities provides opportunities for problems to occur in unexpected locations. These fears have caused floating nuclear plants to be labeled as “floating Chernobyls.”

Another concern in today’s world is terrorism. It is currently unknown if construction of these vessels will include containment structures or missile shields. Without such safety devices, these facilities are completely susceptible to various acts of terrorism.

It is scary to consider the repercussions of an accident on one of these vessels. Not only can it be a threat to land and people, but also the oceans, which are a major food source for many nations. Apparently it is too late to stop the development of floating nuclear plants, so let’s hope that construction will at least include all appropriate safety mechanisms.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Russian oil supplies to the Czech Republic were drastically cut during July with no explanation. Supplies were initially cut by approximately 40%, but further cutbacks reduced oil to 50% of its pre-July levels. Transneft, Russia’s oil pipeline monopoly, declined to say why the cuts occurred or when full operations will resume throught the Druzhba Pipeline.

Coincidentally, the flow of oil was cut one day after U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice signed an agreement with the Czech Republic to deploy part of a missile shield on Czech territory.

Russia has opposed the placement of such a system close to its borders, claiming it to be a threat to national security and defense. The Russians have denied the disruption of oil supplies are a retaliation for the Czechs signing the agreement.

Many European countries feel this cutback is another reason to question Russia as a reliable energy exporter. In 2007, Russia cut oil supplies to Belarus after accusing them of siphoning oil from the Druzhba Pipeline. That disruption also affected oil supplies to Germany and several Eastern European countries.

Following the situation with Belarus, Russia agreed to establish an early warning system to notify the European Commission of any impending cutbacks so affected countries could make alternative arrangements. No such warning was provided prior to the Czech cutbacks.

In this particular case, the Czech Republic, which is 100% dependent on imports, has replaced their lost oil supplies through a pipeline connection with Germany.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

On May 18, 2008, the Nation’s Resurrection Party, a new Lithuanian political group, held its inaugural meeting. Zenonas Vaigauskas, Lithuania’s election chief, told reporters that the new party may have failed to reach a total of 1,000 members which is required by law for participation in the country’s elections, including the upcoming October 2008 vote.

Resurrection Party leader Arunas Valinskas replied that the group had enough delegates or their proxies in attendance to reach the threshold. Valinskas claimed 687 founding members were physically at the meeting and some of them hold proxies for 4-10 other members.

Membership count may be the least of Resurrection’s problems. Lithuania’s citizens may have a difficult time taking this group seriously. The party consists mainly of show business personalities, and Valinskas has told voters not to expect “economic miracles” from the group. However, he did promise plenty of mirth and merriment if the country enters a period of economic crisis.

Perhaps at times I take politics too seriously, but I would have a difficult time supporting any party that promises mirth and merriment during an economic crisis. How can voters possibly have confidence that their government will solve economic or other problems when the group admits it shortfalls and only promises to provide everyone with entertainment? I’m all for less-stodgy politics, but there are limits, and I want my leaders and representatives to at least have the capability to fix the country’s problems.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Questions have arisen regarding Belarus’ ability to hold a fair election in the upcoming October 2008 parliamentary vote. Opposition leaders have already claimed they are victims of pressure and unfair campaign practices.

These questions are nothing new to Belorussian politics. Three weeks before the country’s 2006 Presidential election, opposition candidate Alexandr Kazulin was arrested and beaten badly by police before being released. This incident occurred when Kazulin attempted to enter the All Belorussian People’s Assembly. He was charged with disorderly conduct and released after being held in custody for eight hours.

Charges of unfair practices do not end there. Prior to Belarus’ 2000 Parliamentary election, reports surfaced of opposition leaders being arrested and prosecuted on charges regarding their political activities. The Council of Europe received reports of human rights violations, persecution and harassment of potential opposition candidates.

In July, President Alexander Lukashenko indicated the upcoming election will show the world that Belarus’ political system is open and democratic. The government may not try to directly influence individual votes, but if opposition candidates are being treated unfairly and drop out of the election, it is still not a fair election. Lukashenko has accomplished many positive things for Belarus during his 14 years as President - it would be shameful to detract from those accomplishments by continuing to influence elections for personal gain.

References

Crawley, Vince. “Free, Fair Election Increasingly Unlikely in Belarus, U.S. Says.” The Washington File. March 3, 2006.

Tyler, Patrick. “Belarus Is Warned to Conduct a Fair Election.” The New York TImes. August 6, 2000.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Australian uranium exploration company WildHorse Energy Ltd. has agreed to investigate the possibility of restarting uranium mining in southern Hungary. The Mecsek underground mine near Pecs operated between 1956 and 1997, before being shutdown due to low recovery rates. During initial Mecsek operations, approximately 21,000 tons of uranium was produced, with an average recovery of 50-60%.

This interest in restarting mining operations is due to a resurgent interest in nuclear power as a “clean” energy source, which has caused an increased demand for uranium. WildHorse believes it can extract up to 11,600 tons of uranium from the Mecsek Hills area.

WildHorse plans to complete initial technical and economic reviews by the end of September. Discussions will then be held with appropriate government agencies and community groups, after which the agreement can be extended for a more detailed feasibility analysis.

If WildHorse determines that uranium mining in the Mecsek area is an economically viable option, Hungary should reap large financial benefits. Not only can the uranium be used for fuel for domestic nuclear power plants, but it can be sold to other nations as well.

In addition to four exploration areas in the Mecsek vicinity, WildHorse also has exploration permits for the Sudetes mountains in southwestern Poland, an area where twelve uranium mines were developed during Soviet times.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. (MHI), a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Group, received an order from Belgium’s Electrabel to supply two replacement steam generators for Reactor 1 at the Doel Nuclear Power Plant. The generators are core components of pressurized water reactors (PWR).

Mitsubishi is not new to the nuclear power industry. In 1971, this company built Japan’s first nuclear plant that utilizes pressurized water reactor technology, Mihama-1. In total, MHI has built 23 nuclear power plants in Japan and another currently under construction, due to begin commercial operations in 2009.

This is not Mitsubishi’s first job in Belgium. With the completion of this order in September 2009, MHI will have supplied 10 of 19 steam generators at Belgium’s nuclear power plants. Prior to this order, MHI has placed three steam generators in both units at the Tihange nuclear plant and the last two were delivered to the Doel-2 reactor in 2004.

Mitsubishi has received additional nuclear power equipment orders from the United States and France.

Before researching Belgium’s atomic energy program, I never knew Mitsubishi was involved in the nuclear power industry. Not only have they placed equipment in three different countries, they plan to actively pursue future business opportunities throughout the U.S. and European markets. Obviously, Mitsubishi does a lot more than just build automobiles.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Formed in 2007, Zares (For Real) is a new party in Slovenia’s political landscape. The group promises politics done in a new way. A change in the business of politics is always an interesting, if not necessary proposition. The question is, can Zares really implement political change in Slovenia?

The key players in Zares are former members of the Liberal Democratic Party and have therefore played a part in the current direction of Slovenian politics. Zares’ leader and President, Gregor Golobic was the secretary-general of the Liberal Democrats and many people feel he actually ran the party.

Zares’ core members are obviously not new to politics. These men have been involved in Slovenian politics for a long time and advocate a generally old-school liberal agenda. Thinking back to their beginnings in the late 80s and early 90s, Zares’ leaders promised change 20 years ago and are doing so again. They were not successful before, so why should we believe they will achieve change now?

In order to have an opportunity to affect change, the group must be in power. I do not believe the Slovenian public knows enough about this party to allow them much more than a small presence in the government, at least for now.

Still, when people tire of the status quo, change always looks good. Heading into September’s Parliamentary election, polls show Zares solidly in third place. If the polls are correct, it would be a good start for Zares and provide them an opportunity to prove themselves to the public. Who knows, maybe in another election or two Zares will be a legitimate threat to control the government.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

The obvious reason for Austria’s upcoming September pre-term election is the failure of the “grand coalition” between the conservative Austrian People’s Party and the Social Democrats.

This marriage was bound to collapse ever since the Social Democrats narrowly defeated the incumbent People’s Party in the last election. The conservatives were never accepting of the election results and have been accused of trying to hinder the new government’s work. The final straw that broke the alliance was the Social Democrats sudden policy change, calling for referendums on all future changes to European Union treaties.

Another issue giving rise to the election is internal strife within the Social Democratic Party itself. Current Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer has been accused by his party of being weak, having no direction and allowing the People’s Party to control most key ministries including interior, finance and foreign affairs. Gusenbauer has already stated he will not seek re-election and is supporting party leader Werner Faymann for the position.

While opinion polls show the People’s Party with a narrow lead heading into the election, both the conservatives and the Social Democrats have lost popularity due to the former coalition’s problems. There is no doubt they will continue to exert influence and lead the government, but lesser parties will now be able to exercise more important roles in setting domestic and foreign policy.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

On July 11, 2008, a fire broke out on the roof of a turbine hall at Sweden’s Ringhals nuclear power plant on the county’s west coast. The blaze started when roofers accidently set fire to roofing materials with gas-fueled torches. The fire on the roof of the Ringhals-2 turbine hall was quickly extinguished by the facility’s internal fire brigade.

Evacuations were not necessary and no reactors were in danger. The closest reactor was in a neighboring building, but is protected by a meter-thick cement wall.

The plant’s automatic alarm was triggered after smoke entered the turbine facility’s ventilation system and set off external alarms.

The Ringhals Plant is the largest nuclear facility in the Nordic region and its four reactors produce approximately 20% of all Sweden’s electricity.

While this incident truly posed no threat of a nuclear disaster, it is a clear reminder that accidents can occur at atomic power plants. These potential accidents can occur not only due to design flaws or operator error, but also from outside sources. These outside factors are another reason why I am concerned about the continued use of nuclear power.

References

“Fire at nuclear power plant.” News Limited. July 11, 2008.

“UPDATE 1-Fire at Swedish nuclear plant, reactor safe.” Reuters. July 11, 2008.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Kosovo’s declaration of independence in February 2008 caused immediate and drastic changes within the Serbian government. Parliamentary lawmakers could not agree on a course of action regarding Kosovo’s announcement, forcing President Boris Tadic to dissolve Parliament in March.

However, the changes were not limited to Parliament. Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica resigned on March 8 following the collapse of his Democratic Party’s ruling coalition with two other political groups. Two weeks before his resignation, Kostunica demanded the United States rescind its recognition of Kosovo as an independent state.

Serbia’s May parliamentary election did not produce a majority party or coalition. Frantic talks commenced between rival factions, but it took two months for President Tadic’s Coalition for a European Serbia to join forces with the Socialist Party to form a ruling majority. With a coalition in place, Mirko Cvetkovic was finally sworn in as the country’s new Prime Minister on July 7.

Like Kostunica, Cvetkovic does not accept Kosovo’s declared independence. Most lawmakers in Serbia’s government may disapprove of Kosovo as an independent nation, but it is time for them to get over it and move on to more important issues.

Kosovo’s declaration was certainly no surprise to anyone, and disapproval from Serbia’s government will not change anything. Nationalists may become upset, but the country needs to spend time working on other problems instead of chasing a pipe dream.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

In 2006, the citizens of Montenegro narrowly chose independence over remaining part of a larger country with neighboring Serbia. Two years later, the country faces many challenges, but everything is under their own control.

Looking back in history, Montenegro was the only country to lose its independence during World War I. Annexed by Serbia, the country was integrated into Yugoslavia in 1929. Following occupation in World War II, the country suffered through a continuous decline under Yugoslavia’s communist leadership, which lasted until Josef Tito’s death in 1980.

Following the fall of Yugoslavia, Montenegro’s strong ties with Serbia caused it to share in the horrors of Slobodan Milosevic’s regime. Though the country was spared most of the area’s violence in the 1990’s, Montenegro did suffer bomb damage from a NATO attack on Plav.

Now independent, Montenegro is a country full of energy and change. Investment, especially in the coastal resorts, has provided hope for greatly increased tourism. Crime has remained remarkably low, though this could be a lasting affect from the manner in which criminals were treated under the Yugoslav regime. Corruption however, is a problem that still persists.

Currently, the country is trying to decide whether to increase ties with Russia or join the European Union. Whatever the decision, at least Montenegro now controls its own destiny.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Since assuming office as President of the Russian Federation in May, Dmitry Medvedev has been positioning himself as having a gentler style and rhetoric than his predecessor, Vladimir Putin.

World leaders, however, should not get too complacent with Medvedev’s appeal. Speaking about Medvedev’s softer approach, Masha Lipman, a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, recently noted the “... essence of Russian foreign policy remains the same.”

Last week, Medvedev himself stated, “Politicians are people, and they should have their own tone and their own style. But that does not change the basic tenets of policy.”

Many people continue to wonder if Putin is still running the country from his new position as Prime Minister. I’m sure Putin maintains quite a bit of influence, but Medvedev appears to support virtually all the former President’s policies.

Medvedev may seem more accessible, but has the ability to be confrontational, following directly in Putin’s footsteps. For example, he has sharply criticized the United States regarding recent turmoil in world financial markets, noting the troubles began with the collapse of the US housing market.

Medvedev may seem to be easier to deal with, but he will do whatever he thinks is right for his country. The face of Russia’s government may have changed, but its policies remain the same.

Reference

Wiseman, Paul. “Medvedev steps into spotlight.” USA Today. July 2, 2008.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

The European Union continues its effort to decrease carbon dioxide emissions throughout the continent. Nuclear energy is considered a source that already makes a substantial contribution to the EU policy of a continuous supply of low-carbon, cost-effective power. Currently supplying 30% of Europe's electricity, nuclear power contributes to stabilized energy prices due to its ratio of primary investment costs to fuel costs.

However, the European public has concerns about nuclear power, focusing on waste disposal, particularly high-level radioactive waste. Proposed solutions include the use of deep geologic depositories, but the first operational facilities are at least a decade away. Finland is currently building such a facility in Eurajoki, near the Olkiluoto nuclear plant, but it will not be ready for use until 2020. Germany is also planning to build a deep geologic disposal site at the Gorsleben salt dome in Lower Saxony, but it will not be operational until at least 2025.

Recent studies have shown Europe only needs a handful of long-term storage facilities for nuclear waste. While this is good news for individual countries, it raises another safety concern. How can this high-level radioactive waste be safely transported across borders? Can you imagine the dangers of a truck with highly contaminated waste products overturning on a highway? I assume that not only would special trucks have to be built for transportation purposes, but new roads as well. I don't believe most people would be happy driving down the highway with one of these trucks nearby.

Europe still has a long way to go before safely achieving long-term radioactive waste disposal. At least the EU and member states are continually moving forward in their pursuit of this goal.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Dutch Economics Minister Maria van der Hoeven believes the Netherlands will be unable to meet its future carbon dioxide emissions targets without nuclear power. Van der Hoeven recently said, "We are very gas dependent and we have to do something about it. In my opinion, it will be very difficult to achieve a clean energy household in 2050 without nuclear energy."

With only one operational nuclear power station, the majority of the country’s energy supplies comes from natural gas. The Netherlands cannot continue this trend as their domestic natural gas reserves are dwindling.

The Netherlands is not alone in their concerns to meet future greenhouse gas targets. Many European countries are also concerned about this issue. Harnessing wind is an alternative, but nuclear plants can easily produce more energy.

Worldwide complacency is the true cause of today's energy problems. Oil, coal and natural gas have been standard sources for a long time. Nuclear power has gained acceptance over the past 40-50 years, though it still needs to overcome fears caused by accidents such as Chernobyl and Three Mile Island.

It is too late to avoid rising energy prices, but now is the time to begin new research efforts for viable alternate energy sources.

Reference

Steen, Michael. "Dutch to weigh up benefits of nuclear power." Financial Times. May 19, 2008.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

According to the Labour Force Survey of Statistics Finland, between 2004 and April 2008, Finland's unemployment rate dropped from 8.8% to 6.2%, with 162,000 people unemployed. The country's rate of employment grew slowest in its southern and western regions, though decreases were also seen in the east and north. The Province of Southern Finland has the country's lowest unemployment rate at 4.7%, while the Province of Lapland is highest at 11.1%.

Not only are more people working in Finland, but they are also earning more money. Between February and April 2008, salaries have increased 9% over the same period last year. This growth is higher than the 6% gain during the corresponding period between 2006 and 2007. The largest wage increases were found in the construction sector (15.2%). Other areas with above average growth include private health care and social services (up to 12.6%), service sector (11.7%) and the financial sector (11.5%). Toward the low end of the scale, private training service salaries increased by approximately 5%.

Finland's employment statistics are gathered by two different methods. Statistics Finland obtains data through the use of the sample-based Labour Force Survey, collected each week of each month. The Ministry of Employment and the Economy use the register-based Employment Service Statistics, which report on employment as of the last weekday of each month. The sample-based approach allows for random variation of approximately +/- 0.5%.

The Finnish government officially uses the Employment Service Statistics because they are based on legislation and administrative regulations. The Labour Force Survey follows recommendations set forth by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), practices required by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities.

References

“Employment and unemployment in April 2008.” Statistics Finland. May 20, 2008.

“Employment Levels Grow; Salary Expenses Increase.” YLEISRADIO. June 12, 2008.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Iceland has cancelled its 2008 presidential election due to a lack of challengers for incumbent Olafur Ragnar Grimsson. Iceland's government has indicated no challengers filed the necessary paperwork to declare their candidacy by the May 24, 2008 deadline.

Despite what you may think, this is not unusual. Icelandic presidential elections are traditionally uncontested when the incumbent president wants another term in office. Grimsson, during his New Year's day speech, announced his intention to seek a fourth consecutive term in office.

Iceland's Presidency is a largely ceremonial office, as most governmental decisions are made by the Prime Minister. The Constitution does grant the President limited powers, but they are rarely used. Grimsson however, shocked the country in early June 2004 when he vetoed a media ownership law passed by the Althing (Parliament). It was unusual that Grimsson was challenged in the 2004 presidential election by two candidates: businessman and pacifism activist Aspor Magnusson and the unknown Baldur Agustsson. Despite a relatively small turnout of 63%, Grimsson won his third term in a landslide, securing 85.6% of the vote.

One cannot be surprised by this year's lack of challengers when you consider the 2004 election results. Apparently, to lose an election, Grimsson would have had to do something much worse than vetoing a law as he did in 2004. The only question remaining is whether Grimsson will seek an unprecendented fifth term in 2012.

References

"Iceland Cancels Presidential Election." IFES Election Guide - Country Profile: Iceland. May 26, 2008.

The President of Iceland Official Website.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Results from last weekend's election in Kyiv reveal the fragile nature of Ukrainian politics. The country’s democratic forces have become so disjointed that their stubbornness allowed incumbent mayor Leonid Chernovetsky to win re-election, even after charges of bribery and corruption were levied against him.

The ongoing battle between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko continued throughout the mayoral campaign. Tymoshenko selfishly supported her Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Turchynov, despite the low odds of victory. Yushchenko, though he did not admit it publicly, appeared to support Chernovetsky. Through their constant bickering, both leaders ignored two other democratic candidates, including the popular former boxer Vitaliy Klitschko.

Tymoshenko thought she held enough influence over voters to get her candidate into office. The Prime Minister was motivated by the desire to have her political bloc control Kyiv’s government, but her power play failed miserably when Turchynov lost the election by an almost 2:1 margin.

By refusing to come together to support a single candidate, the democratic forces ultimately weakened themselves. Had they come together behind a single candidate, the election results could have been remarkably different.

I was initially pleased when the democratic coalition formed after last September’s General Election, but now I’m not so sure. Since the days of the 2004 Orange Revolution, the pro-Russian Party of Regions (PoR) had been the common enemy. Infighting between the democratic forces is now so common that PoR has become nothing but an afterthought. If the democrats are not careful, the Party of Regions will sneak under the radar, regain power in the Verkhovna Rada and win the upcoming 2010 Presidential Election.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Results announced last week from the 2008 World Competitiveness Yearbook Survey placed Luxembourg as the fifth most competitive economic environment in the world. Only the United States, Singapore, Hong Kong and Switzerland placed ahead of the tiny Benelux country.

The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook is a highly regarded annual report that ranks countries economic competitiveness using 331 different criteria. Each country's score is calculated by combining the following factors: economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency and infrastructure. Most of the data is collected from sources such as the World Bank and United Nations, though some also comes form approximately 4,000 survey responses.

While fifth place sounds great for such a tiny country, Luxembourg slipped from last year’s number four ranking. Truly amazing is Luxembourg’s uncanny ability to remain in the world's top 10 for the past decade.

What is the secret to their success? The country's government has allowed its Board of Economic Development to be completely in charge of new development projects. Besides new project, Luxembourg employs a policy of industrial diversification. Another major driver of economic development is the country’s posturing as an attractive destination for intellectual property.

Luxembourg may be a small country, but the government is a forward-thinking body that is moving the country toward a bright and prosperous future.

References

"IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook: Luxembourg ranks 5th out of 55." Luxembourg Board of Economic Development. May 19, 2008.

"Luxembourg Ranked Fifth Most "Competitive" Economy in Annual IMD Survey." CA-Luxembourg-Consulate Press Release. May 19, 2008.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Malta’s government is considered to be a democratic republic, but don’t confuse the word democracy for freedom. According to a recent report by Freedom House, a non-governmental organization, freedom of the press has diminished in this tiny island nation over the past few years.

Though the country’s Constitution guarantees freedom of speech and of the press, the government is allowed to restrict these rights under a variety of circumstances. Apparently, Malta is one of three European Union member states not to have freedom of information legislation.

The government controls several domestic radio stations as well as the only national television broadcaster, TVM. Despite restricting access to independent news sources, Malta’s government does not block internet access.

Over the past year, Malta has seen a series of threats and attacks against journalists reporting on public demonstrations and debates. Police are currently investigating an arson attack against a journalist and editor who were covering issues of immigration, racism and intolerance towards immigrants. The Maltese Broadcasting Authority, in another example of restrictive policies, sued an independent television station for broadcasting material that could incite racial hatred.

Last week, Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi announced the approval of a draft freedom of information act, which is expected to be presented to the legislature at the formal start of the body’s new session.

I am surprised the European Union allows member governments to restrict freedom of the press and speech without penalty. I believe countries have the right to set their own policies, as long as they allow for basic freedoms. At least Malta finally seems ready to alter an antiquated policy.

Reference

Zahra, Charlot. “Malta enjoying fewer press freedoms.” Malta Today. May 11, 2008.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

On May 7, 2008, Dmitry Medvedev became the third President of the Russian Federation. Immediately after the inauguration, he nominated former President Vladimir Putin to become his Prime Minister.

So far, everything seems to be going as planned - that is, planned by Putin. For the past year, it appears that Putin has taken steps to insure he retains power after completing his second term as President. From changing laws to hand-picking a successor, Putin has made many people believe he has scripted the country’s path for the next four years until he can legally run for a third term as President.

Though Medvedev has been a close confidant for many years, Putin’s endorsement surprised many experts. Medvedev is more businessman than politician, and it is not clear if he has the skills to be President.

Medvedev was not part of the campaign picture until he received Putin’s endorsement. His popularity immediately skyrocketed, allowing Medvedev to win the election with almost 70% of the vote. This level of support has a strong basis in Putin’s popularity and the public’s desire to honor his wishes.

The only foreseeable problem between these men is Medvedev’s desire to honor the rule of law and establish civil and economic freedoms. These policies are opposite to the Soviet-style authoritarian tactics Putin occasionally employed.

Another question is whether Medvedev has the courage to dismiss Putin if he fails to deal with several existing problems. Putin had no problem firing Prime Ministers for their failures, but can Medvedev do this to his mentor? Medvedev appears to be loyal to a fault, and seems more likely to follow Putin’s script (if one really exists) than to challenge his friend and former boss.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Over the past several weeks, Russia has increased its peacekeeping forces in Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The additional troops were sent to the area after Georgia massed an additional 1,500 soldiers and police near the Abkhazia border. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow has to take action to protect Russian passport-holders in both regions. Georgia however, fears direct military aggression from Russia.

Georgia denies any plan of military intervention in either of the upstart regions and officials referred to Russia's tactics as "irresponsible."

Many experts believe Russia is acting out on its threat from earlier this year in which President Vladimir Putin stated if Kosovo was allowed to become an independent nation, it would set a precedent and Abkhazia and South Ossetia should then be provided with the same opportunity for independence.

Tensions between Russia and Georgia have recently increased, despite Moscow lifting economic sanctions against Georgia. Last week, Georgia claims a Russian MiG-29 shot down an unmanned Georgian spy plane. Following this “act of aggression,” Georgia has threatened to block Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization.

This situation is different than last year’s threat of military action by Moscow as a response to the US plan for an Eastern European missile defense shield. In that situation, Putin threatened direct force against its neighbors to protect its borders and interests.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

April 26 is the 22nd anniversary of the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Plant in northern Ukraine.I had planned to write a general post about this anniversary, but having somewhat of a personal stake in the aftermath of the accident has driven me in a different direction.

No, I was not at Chernobyl at the time of the accident, but I do have friends who are former residents of Pripyat, the city that used to be home to the Plant workers. I also have friends who are former liquidators, people who helped clean up the consequences of the disaster. I personally visited the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in 2006, and as fascinating as it is to see nature reclaim the area, it was also extremely sad to visit the former home of my friends.

Not everything about the Chernobyl anniversary needs to be gloomy and depressing. Many former Pripyat residents in Kyiv have created an international action titled "The Saved Planet." This action is an appeal for everyone around the world to make our planet a better, happier an peaceful place.

The action only asks that people stop for 10 minutes to say a prayer or merely have good, bright thoughts on April 26 from 1700 to 1710 GMT. If these people can find a way to turn part of a day of sorrow into a day of hope, then everyone else can do the same.

These Chernobyl victims are not allowing the horrible memory of that incident to rule the day. No, they have chosen part of the disaster’s anniversary to join together for a more positive worldwide outlook. If only everyone else could do the same thing.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

On April 11, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero was approved by Parliament for a second term in office. The process required a second vote because Zapatero did not get enough votes during the first ballot. Zapatero’s Socialist Workers’ Party was victorious in the March 2008 General election. This was the first time since Spain returned to being a democracy in 1975 that a second parliamentary vote was required to approve a Prime Minister.

During the first ballot on April 9, Zapatero received 168 votes in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies, eight short of the required absolute majority. The second ballot, which cannot occur for at least 48 hours after the first, requires only a simple majority. On Friday morning, Zapatero received 169 votes in favor of his nomination, 158 against, and 23 abstentions.

Seeking changes within his own government, Zapatero has created a new cabinet with nine female members, including former Housing Minister Carme Chancon Piqueras, who has become the country’s first Defense Minister.

Continuing in power, Zapatero faces the daunting task of rebuilding a cooling economy and dealing with the Basque separatist group ETA. Zapatero's task will not be easy - he will lead a minority government that will be forced to seek support from other parties every time they try to get new laws passed.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Bulgaria's coalition government survived a no-confidence vote on Friday, fueled by opposition claims it has close ties to organized crime. The parliamentary motion was rejected in the 240-seat National Assembly by a vote of 117-82, with 35 abstentions and six absentees.

This was the fifth time Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev's government has faced a no-confidence vote since assuming office in 2005. This last vote followed the arrest of two senior police officials who are accused of abuse of power and revealing state secrets to organized crime leaders. Prior to the vote, the government approved a plan drafted by Interior Minister Rumen Petkov to reform the police.

The government may have survived, but the vote revealed signs of a shaky three-member coalition including the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms.. All 35 abstentions came from third coalition partner National Movement for Simeon II, which demanded the dismissal of the Interior Minister.

Following the vote, Prime Minister Stanishev announced Cabinet changes would occur to prevent the government from completing its term in office "limping along."

The European Union has repeatedly criticized the Bulgarian government for its failure to combat corruption and organized crime. The country could face EU sanctions if a mid-2008 European Commission report indicates negative progress.

The next national election should occur by sometime in 2009, when the people will determine if Stanishev’s government will remain in power.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Pieter Feith, head of the European Union-led civilian mission in Kosovo approved the new country’s Constitution on April 2, 2008. The document guarantees individual, community and minority rights, including those of the Serb minority.

Kosovo’s Constitution still needs to be formally approved by the country’s 120-seat assembly. It is expected to come into effect on June 15, the day the local government is scheduled to take over authority from the United Nation’s mission.

Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in February 2008. EU approval of the country’s Constitution was required to make sure it was in line with the international agreement that allowed for Kosovo’s secession.

Serbia and Russia still oppose the secession and refuse to recognize Kosovo as an independent state. As a member of the U.N. Security Council, Russia’s defiance means that Kosovo’s independence has not been recognized by the United Nations.

The lawmakers in Kosovo have obviously been busy drafting the country’s Constitution. It is very encouraging that it has gained EU approval more than two months before it needs to come into effect.

Independence is one thing, but the ability to self-rule can be much more complicated. This announcement is a positive step forward in Kosovo’s quest for recognition, absolute independence and self-rule.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Recent reports indicate that broadband penetration rates in some European countries are now equal to or greater than those in the United States. Broadband's high-speed access is great for users, but is also providing huge revenue growth for providers.

BuddeComm's latest report, "2006-2007 Europe - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband in Scandinavia," indicates that the share of dial-up revenue fell from 72% in 2001 to 9% in 2006. Broadband is becoming such a de facto standard that in 2007, Sweden's telecommunications giant TeliaSonera stopped offering dial-up for its new subscribers.

Though TeliaSonera may have lost a few customers that did not want broadband services, the company still realized a net sales increase of 5.8% in 2007, with 5.8 million new subscriptions throughout their Nordic, Baltic and Eurasian operations. According to TeliaSonera Broadband President Anders Bruse, growth in broadband is driving sales. Bruse noted, "... We are shifting the product mix, including investments and costs, from traditional to new services to strengthen our positions."

Revenue growth for European broadband providers should continue for many years due to the European Union's initiative to further expand these high-speed services throughout the continent.

Reference

TeliaSonera Annual Report 2007

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates met with Russian leaders last week, attempting to reach an agreement regarding the construction of a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been completely against this plan since its inception, though he recently indicated confidence that a solution is possible.

At stake is a plan to base U.S. interceptor missiles in Poland and radar units in the Czech Republic to act as a shield against possible attack by countries such as Iran that pose a threat with nuclear weapons. Russia opposes the plan, claiming the location of such a system is a direct threat to the country's strategic interests. The U.S. government swears the system would not be aimed at Russia.

I am glad to see both sides talking, but a solution will not be simple. Last summer, Russia countered the plan by offering the use of one of its own installations, thereby allowing them a measure of control. Of course, the U.S. rejected the offer and relations have since cooled. I believe a compromise will be reached after Dmitry Medvedev is sworn in as Russia's new President, though any agreement will most likely be approved by Putin himself.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

In a poll conducted between February 22 and 28, the Kyiv International Sociology Institute found that almost 40% of Ukrainian citizens prefer their current form of government, a parliamentary-presidential republic. However, President Viktor Yushchenko believes the current system is flawed and wishes to change Ukraine to become a purely presidential republic.

After Ukraine's Orange Revolution in 2004 and problems that led to the tension-filled Parliamentary election in September 2007, I cannot blame Yushchenko for wanting change. I agree with Yushchenko that change is needed, but I am not sure his proposition is the best solution.

More important than my opinion, apparently the citizens of Ukraine also have their doubts. Only 19% of respondents favored a presidential republic - definitely not a glowing recommendation. The poll results revealed the following:

• A parliamentary-presidential republic - 38%
• A presidential-parliamentary republic - 21%
• A presidential republic - 19%
• A parliamentary republic - 7%
• One-man rule - 2%
• Not sure - 13%

It is not clear if Yushchenko will really take action, but to stand a chance of getting re-elected in the next Presidential campaign, he better think twice before upsetting voters with such a change. According to recent surveys, if the Presidential election was held today, Yushchenko stands no chance against Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko. Any possible chance of re-election not only requires Tymoshenko to lose support, but Yushchenko needs to make huge gains. That will not happen if he goes against the people’s wishes

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Earlier this week, several groups of protesters took to the streets for Moscow and St. Petersburg to show their outrage over suspected fraud in last Sunday’s Russian Presidential election, won easily by Dmitry Medvedev. In Moscow, the protesters were outnumbered by thousands of peaceful pro-Kremlin activists who marched on the U.S. embassy shouting pro-Putin and Medvedev chants. Surprisingly, there were no governmental crackdowns on the demonstrations.

Most Western governments avoided direct criticism of the vote, voicing their willingness to work with Medvedev, and hopes he respects democracy and freedom. Germany and France sent their congratulations to Medvedev, though they mentioned the vote did not meet their criteria of a democratic election.

The European Union and Britain said the election results appeared to reflect the will of the Russian people. I’m sure that Britain felt the same as Germany and France, but with their statement, employed a healthy dose of diplomacy.

There may well have been fraud and tampering during the vote, but I have no doubt that Medvedev still would have won a “fair” election. The majority of Russian citizens fully support Putin, and would therefore vote for his hand-picked successor. In polls across country, Medvedev was miles ahead of the other candidates,

It is quite likely that many people’s intent was to vote for Putin, believing that he will remain in control of the country, but it was Medvedev’s name on the ballots, and he received the votes. Westerners may not approve of the election process, but they do need to accept the will of the Russian people.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

All eyes will be watching Russia this Sunday, waiting for the inevitable announcement that Dmitry Medvedev has won the election and will become the country’s next President. Medvedev is the hand-picked successor of current President Vladimir Putin, who is slated to become Russia’s next Prime Minister.

Besides Medvedev, the other candidates are communist Gennady Zyuganov, ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, and supposed pro-European Andrei Bogdanov. Mikhail Kayanov was a fifth candidate and probably the biggest threat to Medvedev, but was removed from the ballot for allegedly falsifying some of the signatures he needed to be included in the election. Kasyanov opposes Putin and claims his removal from the ballot was politically motivated.

In all recent opinion polls, a huge majority of voters indicated their intent to vote for Medvedev. According to a survey by independent Levada Center in Moscow, 19% of respondents believe Medvedev will act independently as President, while 63% think he will be under the control of Putin. It appears that people will vote for Medvedev due to Putin’s support of his candidacy, not because they feel he can do the job.

Experts estimate Medvedev will win the election with approximately 2/3 of the vote. Come back next week for complete election results and analysis.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

It only took four days after Kosovo’s declaration of independence before NATO troops and UN police mobilized to secure the new nation’s northern borders. This action is in response to violent protests by angry Serbs and continuing threats against Kosovo’s new-born sovereignty.

The demonstrations, including the torching of border checkpoints by Kosovo Serbs. These protests have no connection to the Serbian government, which continues its diplomatic attempts to have the breakaway nation’s declaration annulled.

Another dangerous situation occurred near the Albanian village of Chabra in northern Kosovo, when a mob of Serbs armed with spades and pickaxe handles pushed back ethnic Albanian police officers.

Rumors point to a Serbian plan of action including intimidation of the United Nations and Kosovar police service, that would culminate in the partitioning of Kosovo to protect the northern Serbs.

Many people are happy for Kosovo’s ethnic Albanians, but are horrified at Serb protests that have followed Sunday’s announcement. It is scary, but national independence rarely comes easy - just think of what it took for America to gain its independence from England.

At least Kosovo has the backing of the UN, as well as the United States and many European neighbors. In the coming weeks, expect to see more violent protests and continued pressure from Serbia to have Kosovo’s declaration repealed, but Kosovo will remain an independent state.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

University of Michigan professor Jan Svejnar must be causing concern for current Czech Republic President Vaclav Klaus. In the February 8, 2008 Presidential election, Klaus was unable to win an absolute majority of votes over Svejnar. Therefore, in accordance with Czech law, the election will be repeated on February 15.

Does a United States University professor have the necessary qualifications to become the next Czech President? Why not? After all, the citizens of the state of Minnesota elected former wrestler Jesse “the Body” Ventura as their governor in 1998. Ventura actually did a fairly good job, if you ignore his controversial public comments.

Svejnar is a Czech-born economist, who used to be an advisor to former Czech President Vaclav Havel. He also has ties to several academic institutes in the Czech Republic.

A proposal by 10 Czech Senators influenced his nomination. Svejnar’s main support base is the Czech Social Democratic Party and the Green Party.

If members of the Czech government believe Svejnar could be an effective President, who are we to argue? If Svejnar does not win the election on February 15, I would not be surprised to see him run again in the next election. Obviously he has enough support to make a strong run at the office.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

Rumors persist that former British Prime Minister Tony Blair may emerge as a candidate to become the European Union's (EU) first President. The creation of the EU Presidency is part of a new treaty poised to alter the organization's existing Constitution and set a five year term limit.

While Blair has not publicly announced his intentions, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has suggested both Blair and Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker as potential candidates. If Blair does run, he will face an uphill battle to win support.

People across Europe have not forgotten Blair’s support of the Iraq war, sending troops to the area against strong objections from both Germany and France. As British Prime Minister, he also rejected adaptation of the Euro, making him seem much more focused on Britain than the whole of Europe. Blair also angered neighboring countries by fiercely fighting over the European Union budget.

Fearing Blair's possible candidacy, a group of European bloggers has already collected approximately 4,000 signatures for an online petition, hoping to stop Blair's candidacy before it even begins.

Many of the European Union's 27 member nations are also concerned about having a figure from one of Europe's big three (France, Germany, Britain) as President. People believe someone from these large countries would attempt to usurp more power and favor their own countries.

Blair would be an interesting choice as EU President, but probably stands little chance of getting elected. Currently, Luxembourg’s Juncker is considered the favorite to win the election and define the job. The election is planned for 2009, but the Lisbon Treaty must first be ratified by member countries. So far, only five countries have approved the document.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

The European Union (EU) has invited Serbia to sign an interim agreement on February 7 that would provide a framework for progress on political dialogue, free trade, visa liberalization and educational cooperation. Most EU members wanted to sign a full Stabilization and Association Agreement with Belgrade, but the Netherlands insisted that the Serbian government must first show full cooperation with the United Nations war crimes tribunal on the former Yugoslavia.

This EU gesture comes one week before Serbia's Presidential runoff election between incumbent pro-European President Boris Tadic and his nationalistic, pro-Russian opponent, Tomislav Nikolic. The results of the January 20 primary election were inconclusive, with Nikolic receiving 39.99% of the vote, while Tadic captured 35.39%. The runoff election is required by Serbian law, which states the victorious candidate must receive an absolute majority of votes (50% + 1).

The timing of the European Union's offer makes me wonder if they are trying to influence Serbia's runoff election. The announcement of this pact may provide much-needed help for Tadic's campaign. A Tadic victory would bolster pro-European forces before Kosovo's expected declaration of independence. However, if Nikolic wins, Serbia may revert back to its exclusionist past - not what most of Europe wants to see.

Come back next week for full coverage of the Serbian Presidential election.

Posted by Mark Resnicoff

If you are a regular visitor to Suite101.com, you have probably noticed several recent changes to the site's structure. The most recent change has occurred to this very topic. Since Wednesday afternoon, this topic’s new name and focus is simply “European Affairs.”

Don’t worry. We are not getting rid of Eastern Europe and Russia. The subject matter is merely being absorbed into this new, broader topic.

I am very excited about this change. While my heart still lies with Eastern Europe and Russia, today’s global society makes it difficult to segregate this region from the rest of the continent. In the past several years, the European Union (EU), a political and economic community comprised of 27 countries, has welcomed the membership of many Eastern European nations. With more of Eastern Europe leaning toward joining the EU community, our organizational change makes more sense than ever.

You can still count on finding the latest information about recent events in the entirety of Europe (including Eastern Europe and Russia). In the future, expect to find coverage of the results of Russia’s upcoming Presidential election as well as the ratification of the EU’s Treaty of Lisbon. Our series of nuclear and government profiles will expand to encompass the rest of Europe. The first article in this continuing series takes a look at Belgium’s government.

I sincerely hope you enjoy our expanded regional coverage. So come back daily and get the latest information about Europe at the new “European Affairs.”